AS THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC CONTINUES TO EBB AND FLOW, policymakers find themselves apprehensively awaiting the long-anticipated labor force crash of a forthcoming “silver tsunami.”1 The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the rising tide of Baby Boomer retirements, leaving little time to waste ensuring the next generation is equipped to succeed in an increasingly competitive and technological global economy. This spate of retirements has been especially pronounced among adults with lower levels of educational attainment which increased at twice the rate of those with some college or completed degrees – leaving skilled trades and other critical industries in need of workers. However, service-related and non-trades are not immune from this demand, as a growing shortage of healthcare and social services workers is approaching critical mass across the South. These factors, combined with rapidly advancing technologies and an imperative need for reskilling midcareer workers, leave states with two options: sink or swim.
Projections by the United States Bureau of Labors Statistics estimate that 25 percent of the population will be past retirement age by 2030, leading to slower-than needed labor force growth and participation rates and an increased need for healthcare and social assistance workers – the nation’s largest industry. Another pre-pandemic report released by the United States Census Bureau found that almost a quarter of the manufacturing workforce was age 55 or older – reflecting a significant challenge for another of America’s major industries. More generally, the nation faces its most profound skilled worker shortage in more than a decade as – in addition to struggling to recruit and retain workers – more in-demand fields require specialized training and expertise at the entry-level. Globally, this shortage is even more menacing, as projections estimate the skilled worker shortage could add up to trillions of dollars in economic loss annually, peaking in 2030 with 85.2 million job openings. Notably, these dire prognostications came before the disastrous arrival of the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent economic disruption.